Hi Pat,
I think it all depends on what the requirements are. We don't all need to be experts in everything we do. (We can't be.) In many circumstances the unconscious expertise may be OK. Or even working at lower levels, eg, using relevant parts of software without knowing all features, knowing where to access a checklist, maintaining observations instruments, etc.
Certainly we should encourage our forecasters to get off the OK plateau and continue to reflect on their forecasting decisions.
cheers
Ian